U.S. markets looking reason to grow but still facing recession risk

Bearish moods on the Wall Street persist, fears of a larger global recession are growing, and the rhetoric of the world’s Central Banks continues to be tough. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was flat, ending on 33,597.92б the S&P 500 lost 7.34 points, or 0.19%, to close at 3,933.92, while the Nasdaq dropped 56.34 points, or 0.51%, to finish at 10,958.55.

Fears that the U.S. central bank might stick to a longer rate-hike cycle have intensified recently in the wake of strong jobs and service-sector reports. More economic data, including weekly jobless claims, producer price index and the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment survey this week, will be on the watch list for clues on what to expect from the Fed on Dec. 14.

The EU announced a ninth package of sanctions against Russia on Wednesday, including restrictions on access to drones, chemicals and military technologies. President Vladimir Putin warned that the threat of nuclear war was rising and reiterated that Russia will defend itself “with all means necessary”. In the meantime, Ukrainian troops repelled Russian attacks near 15 settlements in the eastern Donets, Luhansk and Kharkiv regions over the past day with Russian forces conducting seven missile attacks and 16 air strikes and more than 40 assaults with multiple-launch rocket systems. Russian stock market fluctuated this Thursday morning, as investors weighed a jump in European natural gas prices against oil prices below $75 per barrel. IMOEX was down 0.25% to 2,187, while RTSI was up 0.34% to 1,103. Metals producers Norilsk Nickel and Polyus gained moderately, along with oil and gas company Surgutneftegas. Sberbank, energy giant Gazprom and internet company Yandex slid slightly. Russian rouble advanced against US Dollar after dropping to the lowest since mid-October over the previous session and rose from the weakest level in more than six months versus euro. USDRUB was down 0.44% to 62.38 and EURRUB was down 0.83% to 65.37. Russian bond yields were slightly lower today with 10-year benchmark rouble bond yields down 6 bps to 10.13%. Russian government sold 29.9 billion rouble worth of March 2032 OFZ in Auction on Wednesday with cut off yield of 3.33%. In other news, Russia’s second-largest state-controlled bank VTB has agreed with CBR to acquire Otkritie Bank.

European markets tilted to the upside as risk sentiment takes a turn positive. Bunds closed just lower with the 10Y closing 2bps down at 1.782% as a bout of selling that followed the eurozone Q3 GDP outperformance dissipated; growth continued at 2.3% YoY against an expected 2.1%. The Stoxx 600 also shed 0.62% on Wednesday but was just up in early trading, notching 0.05% at 0805 GMT.

SSA tilted towards the upside at the open as risk sentiment shows signs of improvement. The space closed yet lower on Wednesday albeit off session lows as Brent pushed higher while treasuries rallied with the 10Y UST yields dropped 12bps. Short bonds getting the most demand following the reversal which saw NGERIA (-.25) and GHANA (-.50) close half a point off day’s lows.

The NTB secondary market closed on a flat note as average yields remained unchanged across the curve. Average yields on the short & medium tier closed flat while the long end of the curve dropped by 1bps. The mild buying interest at the long end of the curve was sustained.

In the OMO secondary market, average yields closed flat across the curve. The FGN bonds secondary market closed on a mildly positive note as average yields closed lower by 3bps across the curve. Average yields on the medium & long end of the curve dropped by 2bps & 5bps respectively while the short end of the curve closed flat. The Mar 2035 bond was the best performer.